Lowered % drop rate?

[chipdip]

Did they lower the drop rate % of boss combo items? Just did 4 page 13's in a row and zero large skulls were dropped.

I'm pretty sure it used to be 20% chance of a mini-boss dropping a Large, Myst, Necklace, etc. But there are 3 mini-superions on page 13, so thats 20%+20%+20% = 60% chance of getting at least 1 Large. 40% chance of getting 0 Larges. So, getting 0 Larges 4 times in a row:

.40 x .40 = .16
.16 x .40 = .064
.064 x .40 = .0256

..that's a 2.56% of that happening (not dropping 1 Large in 4 games). Seems a bit weird?

[Tod]

i almost never get larges from page 13
i doubt they dropped the rate

also, no, you have a 20% chance of the miniboss dropping a large. 4 chances of 20%, you wont get anything about 80% of the time

[BuySumSk1lls]

You probaly just had bad luck.

[chipdip]

Maybe.. that's just so weird. There was literally, a 2.56% of that happening. 3 out of 100 pretty much. geez. o_O

[Ceb£ruS]

lol last time i soloed page 13 when i was a lower lvl i had goten 2 larges >.<

[Kwex]

Actually your math is wrong: Those 20%s are each independent events, so to find the probability you don't get anything you use 0.8 (80% for no drop from one) and...

P(A&B&C) = P(A)P(B)P(C) <--- they are all independent events
= (0.8)^3
= 0.512

and then using the 4 games as independent events, you would get 0.0687 or 6.87%.


The chance is still small so you were just unlucky.

[Polyanthus]

You had a bad day.
Quit the gay maths, JERKS.

[Zyluz]

gay maths?
I'm assuming you don't like Maths.
Maths can show precise figures, rather than:
"Uhhh, maybe you were unlucky."

[Legomyeggoz]

ooh nice math...taech me someday.. :D

[Noob_eater]

erm
well if its 20 percent per mini thats liek 60/300||6/30||1/5||
one fifth timea 3 quests = 3/15= 1/5. So wernt ther like 180/900 chance XD I duno i confused my self

[prof]

6% for the boss items. It was boosted for sometime I think since I was getting tons per quest, but now I'm going through lv5 quest getting nothing.

[Legomyeggoz]

everybody has NICE MATH!

[vibhas]

6% for the boss items. It was boosted for sometime I think since I was getting tons per quest, but now I'm going through lv5 quest getting nothing.

yay, i was getting so bored of doing bosses, and then getting like 10 more in the boss stage, and if i ever bothered to do a quest, my clan and i wud have enuf for another 3-4 weeks. lol at poor attempts to do maths. Even a teenager like me understands that lol

[MrSix6VI]

I got three Crimson necklaces in a row, and have hit a drought since... 8 tries, no necklaces.
Damn random crap.






--------------
"I want to have your abortion."
-Marla Singer "Fight Club" (The book, the line was changed in the movie.)

[fire23150]

the quest drops was never suppose to be high... well the fun high boss drop rates are over

[GhaxX]

Did they lower the drop rate % of boss combo items? Just did 4 page 13's in a row and zero large skulls were dropped.

I'm pretty sure it used to be 20% chance of a mini-boss dropping a Large, Myst, Necklace, etc. But there are 3 mini-superions on page 13, so thats 20%+20%+20% = 60% chance of getting at least 1 Large. 40% chance of getting 0 Larges. So, getting 0 Larges 4 times in a row:

.40 x .40 = .16
.16 x .40 = .064
.064 x .40 = .0256

..that's a 2.56% of that happening (not dropping 1 Large in 4 games). Seems a bit weird?

Why don't you take another class of math or try to count what your chances should be if there were 10 minibosses.

Would it be... 10x20 = 200% chance? I am not very special in math, but even I can tell that you're not either

[C0r]

You all just arent shooting him in the right spot :P Nuts, and he'll drop large everytime ;)

[Eva_01]

well some reason when i solo quests i can get boss items easier than when grouping x.X
w/ group did like 10 pg 13 runs... nothing
w/ solo 2 pg 13 and going 3 larges ^^ than i failed at soloing boss T_T (i don't think lvl 16's were created to solo them lol x.X)

Cor@ isn't that like a false rumor o.0

[chipdip]

Why don't you take another class of math or try to count what your chances should be if there were 10 minibosses.

Would it be... 10x20 = 200% chance? I am not very special in math, but even I can tell that you're not either
Edit: at first I thought probability wasn't the same thing as percentage, turns out, it is. After messing around on my phone, I got the same thing as this guy:

P(A&B&C) = P(A)P(B)P(C) <--- they are all independent events
= (0.8)^3
= 0.512

and then using the 4 games as independent events, you would get 0.0687 or 6.87%.

.512 as the chance of getting nothing, and .488 as the chance of actually getting (at least) 1 large skull in one round (with 3 mini's).

so getting nothing 1 game in a row is a 51.2% chance, getting nothing two games in a row is a 26.2% chance, nothing 3 games in a row is a 13.4% chance, and nothing four games in a row is 6.87% chance as Kwex said. This is all IF the drop rate for skulls is actually 20%.. prof says it's 6% chance, which of course would raise the chance of getting nothing 4 games in a row, so maybe that's the case

thanks for posting the correct method Kwex, must've missed it earlier

[MrSix6VI]

No math could tell you ANYTHING because it's RANDOM.
Even with 95% odds, you COULD miss it, every time.

[Kwex]

.512 as the chance of getting nothing, and .488 as the chance of actually getting (at least) 1 large skull in one round (with 3 mini's).

so getting nothing 1 game in a row is a 51.2% chance, getting nothing two games in a row is a 26.2% chance, nothing 3 games in a row is a 13.4% chance, and nothing four games in a row is 6.87% chance as Kwex said. This is all IF the drop rate for skulls is actually 20%.. prof says it's 6% chance, which of course would raise the chance of getting nothing 4 games in a row, so maybe that's the case

thanks for posting the correct method Kwex, must've missed it earlier

Stats exam this Thursday, if I don't even know simple stuff like that... heheh, I'd be screwed.

[PoLiNi_Be]

seems some people arent good in math
if you got 6% to get a skull and you kill 2 then you got 6%*6% chance to get 2 skulls
lets think diff, we got 94% chance getting nothing
94% * 94% means 0 skulls on 2 mini bosses so 88,36% chance getting nothing, 11.64% getting atleast 1 and 0.36% chance getting 2

so if you get 4 mini bosses in a quest, you did 4 quests, so 16 mini bosses
6% luck getting item, 94% getting nothing
0.94^16 = 37% chance getting 0 skulls
so it isnt unlogical you got nothing.
just believe me about the 37% i got alot of math on school
only things im not sure about is the 6% and 4 large in page 13, i thought it was 3, long time ago i played that

[PoLiNi_Be]

Kwex is right, i did it for diff values

so basicly
(1- chance on skull)^(amount mini bosses killed in total)
and that is for % of getting 0

[chipdip]

No math could tell you ANYTHING because it's RANDOM.
Even with 95% odds, you COULD miss it, every time.
yeah, you're right, you could miss it every time.. well, actually, that's what happened to me, and is why i asked the question in the first place, heheh (the question asking if they lowered the drop rate). :thumbsup: Really we could give you the probability for getting a boss item for each quest page....! ....but we wont. =)

seems some people arent good in math ... oops no youre right kwex is right.
heheheh, j/k, I made a mistake too (obviously). kinda sad, I used to get A's/B's in math (B's when I just didn't want to do the homework every night), but the last time I had actually tough math was in highschool.. uh.. like 4 years ago o.O The math I took in college was only a horrible online course where you weren't forced to think (read 1-2 pages, do 10-20 problems, and that was it for that week's lesson). I've forgotten a lot by now.

Haha... math. in a gunz forum.

[wadesy2k7]

From what i have read the drop rates are random, and shooting the monsters in different spots does not aid in any way.

Before you read these, realise i did not find these out, nor do i take credit:

Shooting Superions children in head does not give you a large, it just makes him upset
Melee'ing Shamans does not make them drop a crimson necklace, the odds of a crimson necklace drop is something like 20%


Not sure if these are true, just read them in a post a couple of weeks back ^_^

[skeetskeet]

I don't know, but Lately I haven't been able to find a Enourmous skull for anything. Seems like it doesn't matter how many Larges I do I can't find EHS. So my DD's are just collecting. :D

[GunChamp222]

sometimes it drops none, sometimes monsters drop a lot. All depends on luck, but i agree that it is noticeably a lowered rate than be4

[wadesy2k7]

GunChamp, i think you may be right there ^_^ I don't quest much so i would not know too much about it, i was just typing what i read :P

Btw, nice signature :thumbsup: